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China's Population Decline: A Wake-Up Call for the Planet

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Demographics in China: A Turning Point

In 2022, China experienced its first population decline in over six decades, ending the year with 1.41175 billion people, a drop of approximately 850,000 from the previous year's 1.41260 billion. This demographic shift was starkly highlighted by a significant reduction in births, with over a million fewer than in 2021. While increased life expectancy somewhat mitigated the population drop, the impacts of COVID-19 were only a minor factor in this decline.

As discussed in articles from October and November, many nations face serious demographic challenges characterized by low birth rates coupled with rising life expectancy— a trend not seen in just a few countries, predominantly India and many in Africa. India is set to overtake China in population this year and is expected to continue growing until the 2060s, despite already achieving a fertility rate of 2 births per woman. This growth is driven by a large existing population and improving life expectancy.

In contrast, China's fertility rate fell to 1.28 births per woman in 2020, even lower than Japan’s rate. The Chinese government's previous ‘One Child Policy’ contributed to this demographic crisis, as it remained in place long after it was necessary. Although the government has since offered various incentives, including financial support for families with multiple children, the demographic damage has already been done.

As we've learned from history, predictions of perpetual population growth have often been proven wrong in countries that have reached a certain level of prosperity, irrespective of cultural or religious factors. It is anticipated that the global population will peak around the 2080s or 2090s, depending on developments in Africa, before beginning to decline.

However, this population decrease does not signify relief for the planet. Even if we avoid catastrophic events, the global population is projected to stabilize around 10 billion, up from the current 8 billion. Environmental issues such as pollution, increasing carbon emissions, rising CO2 levels, ocean acidification, and more erratic weather patterns will persist irrespective of population changes.

For the implications of population decline to be significant, we may need to wait several decades after the global population growth rate drops to zero or becomes negative, which is currently at +0.9%. This could push the timeline to the 2130s or 2140s, depending on when global population peaks. If we do not take decisive action now, we risk crossing critical environmental thresholds leading to irreversible climate change.

The Big Fry: A Poem of Caution

I have penned a poem titled "The Big Fry," which serves as a cautionary tale about a potential future ravaged by climate change.

Let's remain hopeful that this remains a work of speculative fiction and not a prophecy. However, mere hope is insufficient; proactive measures are essential. While discussions around population reduction may be misused by climate change skeptics, we must not ignore the urgent need to address climate issues.

Demographic trends have long-term implications for climate, but the climate crisis demands immediate attention. Unfortunately, the response so far has been inadequate, with insufficiently thought-out solutions and a tendency to defer action.

Will we act decisively before it’s too late? How long will it take for policymakers and the economists advising them to understand that infinite growth on a finite planet is unsustainable? The current economic model, which relies on constant growth, is untenable for a single-planet civilization, and we are now at that critical juncture.

Thank you for engaging with this discussion. Please share your thoughts or questions in the comments section.

Population decline graph

Chapter 2: Understanding China's Shrinking Population

This video explores the implications of China's population peak and its anticipated decline by 2100, projecting a drop of 800 million people.

The second video delves into the reasons behind China's shrinking population, providing insights into the demographic challenges the country faces.

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