Chapter 1: Understanding Civilization's Fragile Foundation

As previously discussed in my essays, the depletion of oil is poised to be the immediate catalyst for the downfall of civilization, occurring sooner than the repercussions of climate change. Various essential aspects of modern society rely heavily on oil, including transportation (trucks, ships, and planes), agriculture (fertilizers and machinery), pharmaceuticals, specialty plastics (including medical supplies), mining operations, and construction materials like steel and cement. The decline of oil will inevitably lead to significant societal disruptions.

While some of these sectors could transition to electric alternatives, time is not on our side. Current estimates indicate that proven oil reserves can sustain us for approximately 47 years, but according to climate scientists, only 37% of these reserves can be utilized without exceeding a 2-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures by 2050. Maintaining this limit at 1.5 degrees Celsius is technically feasible, yet highly improbable.

A climate scientist articulates the urgency:

> “We have got to the stage where the 1.5C carbon budget is so small that it’s almost losing meaning,” said Glen Peters from the Norwegian CICERO climate institute. “If your face is about to slam into the wall at 100 miles per hour, it is sort of irrelevant if your nose is currently 1 millimeter or 2 millimeters from the wall. … We are still heading in the wrong direction at 100 mph.”

Notably, the world briefly surpassed the 2-degree Celsius barrier on November 17, 2023. If we stick to using 37% of our oil reserves, we might have only 33 years left based on current production and consumption levels, with a 50% likelihood of surpassing the 2-degree Celsius threshold.

As time goes on, it is likely we will resort to tapping into previously protected oil fields, such as those in Alaska and offshore California, as we face the grim choice between immediate starvation and long-term climate-related demise.

Despite the potential to extend the life of oil reserves by a few decades, the fossil fuel industry’s influence over governments means that oil extraction will persist until it becomes prohibitively expensive. The timeline for this may not differ significantly from if nations had proactively reduced fossil fuel consumption due to climate concerns.

Video Description: In this video titled "11 Reasons Our Civilization Will Soon Collapse," key factors contributing to the potential downfall of our society are discussed, emphasizing the urgency of addressing both oil depletion and climate change.

Chapter 2: The Role of Methane Hydrate in Our Future

One potential game-changer for the fossil fuel industry is methane hydrate, which consists of methane trapped within ice crystals. This allows for burning methane hydrate without the immediate danger of combustion, as demonstrated in the image below. Methane hydrate is found at ocean depths between 350 and 5000 meters, where specific temperature and pressure conditions prevail.

Recent estimates suggest that natural gas may only outlast oil by about a decade, yet methane hydrate could theoretically provide an astonishing 1.2 million years of fuel at current consumption rates—approximately 23,000 times the world’s proven gas reserves. However, the environmental cost would be catastrophic, potentially transforming our planet into a hellscape reminiscent of Venus long before that time frame is reached.

While methane can support critical sectors like agriculture and transportation, the consequences of relying on it may lead to severe climate degradation, making life increasingly intolerable. The debate surrounding the best course of action—whether to allow billions to starve immediately or to prolong suffering under climate extremes—will be gruesome, but mitigating fossil fuel usage as much as possible could provide a glimmer of hope for survivors to rebuild society.

Video Description: The video "Climate Change and the Collapse of Civilization. Decade by Decade until 2070" explores the gradual impacts of climate change on our civilization, emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges before it's too late.

This essay does not advocate for the expanded use of methane hydrate to sustain fossil fuel reliance but rather contemplates a possible future. As oil resources dwindle and global temperatures rise, numerous radical solutions will emerge to maintain a semblance of normalcy. The fossil fuel industry will likely continue its lobbying efforts, all while billions of lives hang in the balance.

Historical events serve as a cautionary tale; the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) resulted from a similar release of methane. If we are not careful, we may inadvertently trigger another catastrophic event by disturbing the fragile methane hydrate deposits.

Ultimately, humanity must grapple with the reality of our choices. As we edge closer to a world reminiscent of the PETM, we might find ourselves adapting to a new, harsh existence, including hunting alligators in the Arctic. My hope was that we could navigate these challenges more wisely.